Today’s Theme Music: “Rude and Reckless” from Tekken 8

We’ve had a good six months now to recover from an incredible 2024 IndyCar season, and as we approach 2025’s opener, change is in the air. The teams now have a charter system, the hybrid engines will get their first full season in the cars, and the races will all be broadcast on network television thanks to a lucrative Fox deal with some impressive marketing juice attached. What should stay the same, however, is the varied and fiercely competitive on-track action that makes IndyCar so special.

So, with two weeks to go until the big kickoff party in St. Petersburg, let’s go around the paddock evaluating every driver with a seat, plus a few we might see who aren’t signed yet, and size up where they’re all likely to land in the pecking order.

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Chevrolet

After another successful championship defense, the Detroit bowties of Chevrolet are sitting on a Manufacturers’ Cup threepeat. They’re looking to make it ten titles since their return to IndyCar in 2012, and their majority of teams on the grid makes that very doable.

Team Penske

If you love ‘em, they’re your Penske perfectos. If you hate ‘em, they’re IndyCar’s equivalent of them golldurn cheatin’ Toyoters. Either way, Josef Newgarden, Scott McLaughlin, and Will Power are back once again to form a power trio of championship threats. All of them will be expected to win multiple races and challenge for the Natty this year, but each will face his own unique challenges this season.

Last year, Josef Newgarden became everyone’s favorite villain and the surprise weak link in Penske’s chain. When he was on, he was on—see his wins at Gateway, IMSA’s 24 Hours of Daytona, and most importantly becoming the first back-to-back Indy 500 winner in over twenty years—but P2Pgate taking away his win at St. Petersburg clearly got into his head, and he was extremely up-and-down as a result, posting his worst overall season since before he joined Penske. He’ll continue to be a threat on ovals, and that incredible Fox ad should give him some new fans who can approach him with a clean slate, but how he performs on road and street courses will be the real test of Newgarden’s mental fortitude.

After a rare winless year in 2023, Will Power had a major bounce-back in 2024, winning thrice before his seatbelt undid itself at Nashville and ruined his title shot on the spot. However, now he’s got a new broken streak to avenge—the all-time king of qualifying scored no pole positions last year, though certainly not for lack of trying, as he lost out in Long Beach by the slimmest of margins. While not as distressing as the situation he started under last year, it will almost certainly be the biggest question mark hanging over the Australian legend’s head, and the sooner he dispels it, the sooner he can put his full focus towards another championship challenge.

Finally, there’s Scott McLaughlin, the man whose two seconds of illegal push-to-pass at the start of the year cost him everything at the end of it. However, owning it immediately instead of trying to talk around it the way Newgarden did clearly earned Scotty Mac some good karma, because he bounced right back and thrived, with three wins, five pole positions, the most laps led, and multiple track records set, including the fastest qualifying in Indy 500 history. He’s pounding on the door of a dominant year on par with what he was putting together in Supercars before he made the jump, and he might not need that many things to break his way for it to happen.

Arrow McLaren

Gee, I wish I knew who McLaren’s franchise player was, but he’s not on any billboards. Who could he be?

Pato O’Ward had a bit of an up-and-down 2024, but those highs were incredibly sweet. He became IndyCar’s first ever winner by disqualification, its first ever winner of the hybrid era, and the only driver all year to win on all three types of circuits. Add in a heartbreaking defeat at the Indy 500, where he fell just two turns short of immortality, and you can see why he’s the most popular driver in the series right now. He’ll be McLaren’s big title contender as usual, but it’ll take more consistency to be a true front-runner, rather than an A-minus level player as he was in last year’s title chase.

Joining the sling of orange arrows is Christian Lundgaard, the only Danish driver to ever win an IndyCar race. Last year, Lundgaard was able to drag an RLL car to a podium at the Grand Prix of Indianapolis and the fastest lap of the 500, so if this move goes well, it’ll be like Goku taking off the turtle shell and realizing he can jump ten times his height now. That said, I’d still expect some growing pains as he initially gets to grips with the car, especially if he has more moments where he drives faster than the speed of his own thoughts.

Rounding out the trio, we have Nolan Siegel. His controversial midyear signing at the expense of Théo Pourchaire has put a giant pay driver target on Siegel’s back, but let’s face it, with how composed and fast he was in Indy NXT, Siegel would’ve been at this level by this year anyway, even if his family backing definitely helped him skip the usual year grinding it out in a backmarker. Now, in his first full season at the top, it’s up to the California kid to learn, improve, and maybe even start unleashing the potential that made him a Le Mans class winner before he could legally buy a beer.

And, of course, we can’t forget the secret fourth car. Kyle Larson, America’s premier Renaissance racer, is back once again to attempt the Memorial Day Double. Last year was an impressive showing given his lack of open-wheel experience, and it earned him Indy 500 Rookie of the Year honors, but this time he’s hoping the rain won’t stop him from also running the Coca-Cola World 600 down in Charlotte, especially now that NASCAR have changed their rules specifically in response to what he did last year.

A.J. Foyt Racing

A.J. Foyt’s bringing an intriguing couple of coyotes to the track this year, one new and one familiar. The familiar, of course, is Santino Ferrucci, who reaped massive rewards from Foyt’s partnership with Team Penske and went from a pure undercard pest to a Portland pole sitter and regular low top-ten presence. Not that it’s stopped Ferrucci from repeatedly trying to run people off the road in practice and pretending it made him a tough guy, or from dabbling in lame 5th grade gay jokes, but, y’know, progress.

Where it gets really interesting, though, is David Malukas signing on in the re-numbered #4 car. With him, they’re getting a rising fan favorite and a ready-made oval threat who, if he drives well enough in this Diet Penske, may get to drive a real one in a couple years.

Put these two together, and there’s a genuine hype around Foyt the likes of which we haven’t seen in years. If that translates to a win for either of them, the entire season is a success. However, other teams have taken notice of what they’re building, and the engineering brain drain has already started. If things backslide as a result, it could get messy for all involved.

Juncos Hollinger

2024 was a strange year of ups and downs for Juncos Hollinger. Agustín Canapino cost the team a crucial fiscal partnership with Arrow McLaren before quite literally crashing out of IndyCar, but at the Grand Prix of Monterey, Romain Grosjean finished 4th, the best finish in JHR history to that point. Then, at the Milwaukee Mile, Conor Daly outdid him by putting a Juncos car on the podium for the first time ever. They’re building something here, and they’ll hope to keep it rolling with Daly—who’s now managed to replace both Juncos drivers, because he’s taking over Grosjean’s #77 seat. If this is any indication, Juncos are banking heavily on more oval success from their new leading man.

However, the sickos out there know that the real story is actually their signing for the #78 car. That’s right, “Mr. Excitement” Sting Ray Robb is back for year three, and back with the team where he won the USF Pro 2000 title in 2020. Yes, he’s here as a pay driver, but Sting Ray showed genuine signs of growth last season, especially on ovals—he led 23 laps at last year’s Indy 500, then posted his first IndyCar top-10 at Gateway. Whatever you think of Sting Ray, we should welcome his continued presence. If he keeps improving and unlocking his potential, he might pull off something crazy that cements his place in the series for 2025 and beyond, and if he doesn’t, then we get another year of him being IndyCar’s most entertaining backmarker. Either way, we as fans win.

Ed Carpenter Racing

Of all the teams on the IndyCar grid, Ed Carpenter Racing is certainly one of them. After letting former leading man Rinus VeeKay walk when his contract expired, it was really looking like they might be rudderless going into this year, but they pulled off a bit of a coup by signing Alexander Rossi, the hottest free agent in IndyCar, to take over the #20 car. I saw him score a podium in person at Laguna Seca last season, so I know how dangerous he is on his day, and he’ll bring valuable knowledge on how to win IndyCar’s biggest races.

Joining Rossi in the #21 is Danish sophomore and former Indy NXT champion Christian Rasmussen. The young prospect had tons of hard luck throughout his debut season, but the talent shone enough that, after initially not being allowed to run most ovals, he was able to pull the #20 car into the Leader’s Circle at the end. Add in a class victory at last year’s 24 Hours of Daytona, and you can see why ECR has so much faith in the guy.

Finally, in the part-time third car, we have the man himself, Ed Carpenter, competing at the Indy 500. I’ll be honest, I don’t have high expectations for him—even at the Brickyard, his track record for the last few years has been low top-20s—but he’s been making big moves in the back rooms to secure massive new sponsorships, and that funding could be what fuels the team back to prominence. If nothing else, that extremely ‘70s new logo will get the team some attention.

Prema

Rounding out Chevy’s full-time slate, we have the new kids on the block, Prema Racing, best known for their teams in Formula 2 and the World Endurance Championship. They’ll come in at a fiscal disadvantage, given that the new charter system excludes them until they either hang around long enough or start buying spots from other teams. To compensate for that, the team’s banking on the strength of their driving talent, both of whom come here from endurance racing. Michael Cannon’s engineering prowess was supposed to help as well, but he’s somehow out of the team right after joining, so the adjustment period may be rockier than people realize.

Callum Ilott makes his welcome return as the Italians’ first ever signee after a year in WEC, where he won the 6 Hours of Spa and helped Hertz Team Jota secure the FIA World Cup for Hypercar Teams. After the circumstances of Ilott leaving Juncos Hollinger at the end of 2023 and how well he did as an Arrow McLaren mercenary afterward, it should be exciting to see him back in the fold.

Joining Ilott is a new face in IndyCar, Robert Shwartzman, whose 2024 wasn’t quite as strong, but his pairing with Robert Kubica and Yifei Ye paid some dividends, peaking when the trio won the Lone Star Le Mans. The talent is clearly there, but after a couple years in GTs and prototypes, it’s going to be essential that Shwartzman reacclimates to single-seaters as fast as possible if he’s going to hold up his end of the bargain—especially because, if he doesn’t, Romain Grosjean is waiting in the wings as Prema’s reserve driver.

DRR-Cusick

The only part-time team on the grid, DRR-Cusick will field two drivers at the Indy 500. Ryan Hunter-Reay will have his eye on a second win in Indianapolis ten years after the last one, and Jack Harvey has repeatedly proved able to overcome a bad qualifying and climb up to the Brickyard midfield. Chances are that one or both of these guys will be scrambling just to survive Bump Day, but if they make the starting grid, they’ll do whatever they can to maximize their returns.

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Honda

The LA County wings at Honda are looking to soar again, and they might be outnumbered, but they’re not outgunned. They’ve got the reigning emperor of the series in their corner and a whole host of top drivers to go with him, and if they can eat into Penske’s dominance on the ovals, a return to Manufacturers’ Cup glory is very much in play.

Chip Ganassi Racing

As always, leading the way for Honda is Chip Ganassi Racing, which has sent two cars down to Indy NXT so they can be a lean, mean trio of lightning bolts in the big leagues. The #9 driver? Scott Dixon, six-time National Champion and last year’s king of the streets. The #10 driver? Álex Palou, who’s won three of the last four seasons to become the first true emperor of this sport since Dario Franchitti in this very same car. 

But if this team is King Ghidorah, and those two are Ichi and Ni, then that naturally implies a Kevin in the #8. After producing back-to-back Rookies of the Year these past couple seasons, Ganassi ditched them both in favor of the island boy, Kyffin Simpson—who, I have to be very clear, is not a total fraud. Simpson arrived in IndyCar as a reigning European Le Mans Series champion in its flagship class, and he set a track record for the fastest racing lap in his debut at St. Pete, at least once you discount Newgarden’s car with the cheat codes in it. But I do understand the cynicism, considering who Simpson outbid to stay on the team and the way the mistakes piled up as last year went on. If he improves, he can be a valuable asset, but if his family backing proves to be his only use to Ganassi, expect his failures to be under an ever-zooming microscope.

And that’s not to say the other two are invincible either. Dixon had a bit of a rough ending last year, with just one podium out of two top-tens in the final five races of 2024, which means he might have to do some extra work to shake off the rust. And of course, Palou has the extra pressure of maintaining his dynasty while being the biggest star in IndyCar without any wins on ovals. At this point, it’s the only thing that anyone not named Zak Brown can hold against him, but the longer he leaves that box unchecked, the harder he’s going to get hammered when it’s not his day.

Andretti Global

Colton Herta is still the clear star of the show at Andretti, and it’s easy to see why. His maturation in 2024 was something to behold, as he significantly cut down on his mistakes and learned to channel his aggression at the right times. His win at Toronto capped off maybe the most dominant race weekend in the history of our sport, and at Nashville, he both shook the longtime oval albatross and snatched second place on the season out of nowhere.

Joining Herta is a fellow reigning champion of the 12 Hours of Sebring, Kyle Kirkwood—who, here in IndyCar, was the best driver not to win a race last year. Kirkwood had his moments, like a runner-up in Toronto and a pole in Nashville, but it was his consistency and near-refusal to finish outside the top 10 that earned him 7th on the season, ahead of Josef Newgarden. If Kirkwood can mix in a couple wins like he did in 2022, look out.

Rounding out the trio is Marcus Ericsson, whose first year at Andretti was extremely up-and-down, to say the least. When he was up, he was up, like that runner-up finish in Detroit, but his lows were crushing—if we include Thermal, Ericsson averaged a DNF every three races. But if he can avoid getting collected on the first turn of the Indy 500, he’ll be a major threat to win it, and his place on the team will be more than cemented.

All three of these guys are at least plausible race winners, and at minimum, Herta will be expected to challenge for the National Championship, especially among those who figure he’ll get his super license and start driving Cadillacs in Formula One. The question is how many bites the Andretti luck will take out of everybody’s seasons, and what they’ll all do in response.

At the 500, the team will also field Marco Andretti in a fourth car, but don’t get your hopes up for him. If recent history is any guide, he’ll do less than squat with this and then go back to popping up at random spots in the NASCAR pipeline.

Meyer Shank Racing

After a bit of a scattershot year, the wall-crawlers at Meyer Shank Racing are back with some new allegiances in the paddock, changing their big-brother Honda team from Andretti to Ganassi. This means a huge boost of star power over in IMSA, where Dixon and Palou will each pilot an Acura in all the endurance rounds, but here in IndyCar, those two will instead be the old kings MSR hope to overthrow.

Felix Rosenqvist is on a two-year extension as Meyer Shank’s leading man, and for good reason. When given the chance, his racing talent shined, as shown when he narrowly beat Will Power for the pole at Long Beach. But whenever he was about to get the kind of race result he deserved, some sort of gremlin or cartoon anvil would ruin his day. His lone podium of the season didn’t even count because it happened at Thermal. The hope is that this new partnership can fix that, and that he’ll find his winning ways as a result.

Another benefit of working with Ganassi is MSR’s new driver, Marcus Armstrong. After two years at Chip Ganassi, where he was 2023’s Rookie of the Year and took the bronze at last year’s Grand Prix of Detroit, the young New Zealander now gets set back to a less powerful team, but may find this is the perfect place to come into his own.

And, of course, at the Indy 500, we’ll see the great Hélio Castroneves take one more shot at a record-breaking fifth Brickyard victory. He won’t be the overwhelming favorite, but it’s always great to see him around, and it does put MSR’s winningest IndyCar driver back on the grid for a moment.

Rahal Letterman Lanigan

Rahal Letterman Lanigan’s offseason got off to a very strange start when the FBI stopped in to raid their offices. Officially, they were looking into allegations of industrial sabotage, but personally, I think they wanted to arrest someone for the team’s criminally poor oval setups last season.

Anyway, with their last race winner Christian Lundgaard off to McLaren, RLL needed some new blood fast. In that respect, there are few better choices than reigning Indy NXT champion Louis Foster. After steamrolling everybody with an eight-win season, he pretty much had to come up to the big leagues immediately, and ideally they’ll treat him as a long-term project who they can hopefully develop into a winner here in the top flight. I’d imagine his old rivals will also be rooting for him to do well, if only so their crop as a whole looks better.

However, RLL’s other new driver will have no such hopes because his name is Devlin DeFrancesco. Yes, the Canadian Captain Crash is back after a year of endurance GT racing in IMSA, and either his class podium at the Petit Le Mans elevated his stock just enough to come back, or, more likely, this is RLL using him as a financial parachute. It’ll make great television for us if he goes back to his usual ways, especially if he ends up locked in a fierce rivalry with Sting Ray Robb, but the worse his year turns out, the more RLL will wish they’d just kept Pietro Fittipaldi.

And, of course, in the #15 car we have Graham Rahal, the man who always knows exactly what’s wrong with his car, and will tell you. At length. Seriously, if you want to know how Max Verstappen will handle things if Red Bull keeps getting worse, just watch Graham do an interview after a bad race. But his experience and smarts will go a long way to balance out this lineup, and they’ll need it if they want to climb through the midfield and have their usual day in the sun at the Indy road course.

Dale Coyne Racing

Many a talented IndyCar driver has gotten their start at Dale Coyne Racing, Álex Palou chief among them. But with the new charter system limiting teams to just three drivers per car, Coyne’s not going to be able to run the carousel of mercenaries he did last year. In typical Dale fashion, he kept us waiting the longest before announcing his lineup, and when we finally did get word, the first name up was Jacob Abel, last year’s Indy NXT vice-champion. After a three-win season where he was the only reason Louis Foster didn’t sleepwalk to the title, Abel takes over as the presumed sole pilot of the #51—and after a year where this car caught fire, ran over a mannequin, and saw six different drivers at the helm, the rookie from Louisville’s first order of business will be to trade chaos for stability. It’s not a tall order, it gives him breathing room to learn and grow, and if he shows flashes of potential, it could be a stepping stone to bigger and better things.

Alongside him in the #18, we have the team’s new leading man, Rinus VeeKay. On paper, this new situation isn’t an upgrade compared to his five years at Ed Carpenter Racing, but keep in mind, he did drag that car to a top-five finish in Iowa last year, and he’s qualified in the top 10 every single time he’s competed at the Indy 500. If DCR gets anywhere this year, it’ll likely be because of the Dutchman flying higher than people expect.

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The Outside Looking In

Even with a maximum of 33 spots on the grid, we still have some names left out in the cold with not even a reserve driver title to their name. However, midseason driver changes are nothing new in IndyCar, and if someone gets injured or just plain bombs out of the series, there are certainly some candidates who’ll be on speed dial.

The most baffling free agent of the year, by far, has to be reigning Rookie of the Year Linus Lundqvist, who lost his seat to Ganassi’s consolidation despite podiums at Barber and Gateway, as well as a pole position at Road America that got thwarted by a punt before the Swede could lead a lap. The decision to drop Lundqvist and keep Kyffin Simpson seems to be an entirely financial one, which goes to show how decidedly un-meritocratic this sport can be, but cases like Callum Ilott provide hope that a deserving driver like Lundqvist can get another shot, provided a team with the right mindset has a seat open.

If we’re talking about controversial drops, we can’t forget Théo Pourchaire, the surprise ultimate loser in last year’s game of Arrow McLaren musical chairs. The fact the team publicly cut ties with Juncos Hollinger over him between Detroit and Road America, only to turn around and drop the Frenchman immediately after, was the most bizarre string of twists and betrayals to happen all season, and while he’s at least landed a reserve gig for Peugeot’s WEC team and recently appeared for Maserati at a Formula E test, these are meager rewards compared to what Teddy Porkchops has rightfully earned on track. If anyone deserves to be on speed dial, it’s him.

One name I’m personally surprised not to see anywhere is Toby Sowery, who was by far the most intriguing debutant to ride Dale Coyne’s carousel last season. Of the zillion drivers to pilot the #51, he got the most out of it with a 13th-place finish at Mid-Ohio, and he must be making some kind of inroads in the paddock considering he just teamed with Colton Herta at the 24 Hours of Daytona. If Sowery merely stays in IMSA for the time being, that’s at least something, but if the opportunity presents itself, especially on a road or street circuit, the 28-year-old Brit may get another chance to impress.

Finally, for a driver whose money situation could help put them in the car rather than taking them out, look no further than Katherine Legge. Last year was her most involved in IndyCar yet, and by some measures her most successful yet, as she led her first ever laps in the series, and combined with her close ties to Honda and incredibly lucrative sponsorship from makeup brand e.l.f., I’m honestly shocked nobody has tried to snag her for at least the Indy 500.

My Predictions

Given the balance of power at the moment, there are no shortage of serious contenders in the mix. At minimum, I expect that all three Penskes, the two merit Ganassis, Herta, and O’Ward will all be in the National Championship hunt well into the summer, and it’ll take until Portland and Milwaukee to truly shake out which ones will be in that final title fight at Nashville.

As for the fringe contenders who’ll snag podiums here and there, plus maybe even a win, while fighting over the remaining spots in the overall top 10, I think at minimum Kirkwood, Lundgaard, Rosenqvist, Ilott, and Malukas all make runs on this front. Anyone from this tier could potentially even break into the top flight if they play their cards right, or at least set up such a run for 2026.

Then, of course, we have the Brickyard merchants. RLL will get their traditional best run of the year on the road course from either Rahal or Foster, while the 500 provides its usual shine for Ferrucci, VeeKay, Daly, and especially Marcus Ericsson, whose results over the last three years have been a win, a controversial runner-up, and an immediate collection on the first turn that wasn’t his fault. I’m also hoping Sting Ray Robb officially steps up into this tier at the 500 by leading a bunch of laps again, because the only thing funnier than him crashing is him actually doing well. Outside the 500, though, Robb will probably be battling DeFrancesco for the Destructors’ Championship.

In the Rookie of the Year race, Robert Shwartzman’s nationality may be complicated—he’s Israeli-born, didn’t race under that flag until he couldn’t use Russia’s, and might even have an argument for being Italian due to his upbringing—but he’s a very straightforward pick to win out. It’s not necessarily going to be a walkover, but that WEC win at Circuit of the Americas certifies a degree of championship-level racing skill that Abel and Foster will have to spend all year trying to catch up to.

It’s worth noting that, as the first full year under the hybrid formula introduced at Mid-Ohio last year, this season has an inherent wrench thrown into all the predictions. While the back half of last season wasn’t a big enough sample size to truly tell who’s helped and who’s hurt by this switch, any major change to the formula will inevitably have major knock-on effects and shuffle some people up and down the pecking order.

However, the one thing I’m the most certain of is that Scott McLaughlin will have his greatest season here yet. Whether that means winning the 500 or the Astor Cup, I’m not sure, but I can feel it in my gut that he’s taking one of those trophies home. With each passing year in IndyCar, he’s improved at an incredible rate, and if this trend holds steady, 2025 should be the point where he officially recreates the peak of his Supercars form—and keep in mind, he won three straight Australian Touring Car Championships over there. With so much elite competition around McLaughlin, he’ll have to earn it every step of the way. However, given what he and his Thirsty Threes have proved capable of, don’t be surprised if he etches himself indelibly in Indy racing history.